The Federal Reserve saved US equities from a bubble (but there’s still a chance!)

Via analysts at UBS on US equites. Thye argue there are seven conditions that need to be met for the formation of a stock market bubble.

Six of the seven have been met:

1. the end of a structural bull market
2. profits under pressure
3. loss of market breadth
4. a 25 year gap from the prior bubble
5. retail investor participation
6. a “this time is different” prevailing sentiment
   among investors

Number 7 is loose monetary policy, and while the Fed cut on Wednesday we are not there (yet, at least).

UBS:

• “What we are missing are benign monetary conditions”
• “Then some of
  the $6.6 trillion in money market funds could easily switch into
  equities”
• forecasts 35% chance of a bubble forming in 2025, the trigger would be ther FOMC eventually lowering rates enough, another 100bp lower is the UBS estimate