The first semi-final of the 2024 Copa America will see reigning champions Argentina take on surprise package Canada at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Tuesday, July 9th.
Match Preview
Argentina, led by Lionel Messi, are the heavy favorites to advance to the final after topping Group A and edging Ecuador on penalties in the quarterfinals.
Canada, making their first ever Copa America appearance, have exceeded expectations by reaching the last four, but will be underdogs against the world champions.
Argentina have won the Copa America a record 15 times, most recently in 2021.
They are aiming to become the first team to successfully defend the title since Brazil in 2007.
Lionel Messi, at 37 years old, is playing in his 6th Copa America. He has scored 13 goals in the tournament, the most by any player.
Messi is Argentina’s all-time leading scorer with 90 goals in 164 appearances.
Lautaro Martinez is the top scorer at this year’s tournament with 4 goals. The 25-year-old Inter Milan striker has formed a formidable partnership with Messi.
Argentina’s squad is filled with world-class talent, with players like Emiliano Martinez, Cristian Romero, Rodrigo De Paul and Giovani Lo Celso.
Canada are only the third CONCACAF team to reach the Copa America semi-finals in their debut appearance, after Mexico in 1993 and the United States in 1995.
Jesse Marsch’s side have conceded just once in their last three matches at the tournament. They have been solid defensively throughout the competition.
Goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau has been in excellent form, with only two goalkeepers preventing more goals than his xGOT (expected goals on target) of 4.2.
Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David and Cyle Larin provide the attacking threat for Canada. Davies has been one of the standout players of the tournament.
Head-to-Head
Argentina has won all the four previous matches, they recently dispatched Canada 2-0 in the Copa America group stage on June 20, 2024.
Injury and Suspension
Lionel Messi has recovered from a minor groin injury and is expected to start. Emiliano Martinez is expected to continue in goal after his heroics against Ecuador.
For Canada, Tajon Buchanan remains sidelined with a broken tibia. Jesse Marsch must decide whether to stick with the lineup that beat Venezuela or make changes.
Prediction
Argentina are the clear favorites to reach the final, with 84% chance of progressing.
Canada have exceeded expectations by making the semi-finals, but will likely see their run end against the reigning champions.
Argentina have the experience and quality to see off Canada.
Lionel Messi will be determined to lead his team to another Copa America title before he retires.
Canada have been a revelation at the tournament, but Argentina’s class should shine through.
- Prediction: Argentina 2-0 Canada
Betting Tips
Match Result: Argentina to win
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 goals
Both Teams to Score: No
Argentina have kept three clean sheets at the tournament so far and are yet to score over two goals in a game. Canada are also struggling for goals, having scored only twice in their last six matches.
With both teams solid defensively, a low-scoring game is expected.
