EUR/USD weekly
The euro is on track to finish the week slightly lower but that follows two weeks of gains on a German agreement to suspend the debt brake in what the market sees as a shift to a more-active fiscal policy.
With that, analysts at CIBC see a steadily rising euro over the course of the forecast horizon to end 2026 when they see EUR/USD hitting 1.15. Part of that is the ‘loss of American exceptionalism’ that’s a theme that’s gripped the FX market.
On the way to 1.15, CIBC sees the euro finishing this year at 1.12.
Structural reform accompanied by German infrastructure spending supports the notion of narrowing US/EU
growth differentials and accordingly a longer term EUR/USD rally. Meanwhile, given that the Eurozone looks on
course to maintain a residual current account surplus over the course of the next 2-3 years, a bias towards an
apparent crowding in of investment flows supports less appetite for external assets. Given the scope for an
extended position adjustment, as a by-product of a higher growth trajectory, we now anticipate EUR/USD
extending towards 1.12 by year-end.
Another spot where they see pronounced USD weakness is against the yen with that pair falling to 138.00 this year from 149.19 currently.
